What’s Nintendo’s next move?

There’s been a lot of speculation lately over Nintendo’s new NX console. At least in the forums I frequent. The latest news out of the rumour mill is that Big N plans to ship 20 million units within the first year. That’s some Atari level crazy right there.

The industry has changed a great deal since the heydays of the Famicom and Super Famicom. Yet they continue to operate under the same mentality.

As Nintendo gears up to unveil their next system, they’re going to have to come face to face with one very painful reality; console gaming is dead in Japan.

To put things into perspective, the Wii U is currently the best selling TV top console there. It currently sits as the third most popular video game system behind the 3DS and PlayStation Vita. Yes, the Vita has sold 3.9 million units there to the Wii U’s 2.3 million.

Japan’s video game market is unique in the world. They like to take their games with them rather than play them at home. Japan is the single biggest market for mobile games, and sales numbers for traditional handhelds reflect that. Nintendo’s 3DS is their first system that has consistently sold better in its home country than it has other markets.

It’s no surprise that other companies like Capcom, Konami, and Sega are ditching TV top consoles like they’re radioactive. Very few Japanese video game companies think outside their borders. International sales are almost an afterthought.

This is where Nintendo is going to have to make some big decisions over the coming years. Do they focus on the global market, or Japan. It’s become quite clear that you can’t do both anymore.

Big N has been pretty adamant about maintaining their hardware business. Which leaves them with two options on the table.

The first one involves a Nintendo who has completely abandoned TV top consoles and has refocused its efforts on handhelds and mobile phones.

The second option has them playing catch up to Sony and Microsoft. Rolling out proper online infrastructure, developing powerful hardware that’s easy to port multi-plats to, bringing new studios on board, mending 30 years worth of strained relationships with third party publishers.

Going handheld is certainly the easier choice. Perhaps even the most logical one, since it requires little to no new investment. The second one could have huge rewards but it’s a huge gamble too. One that requires a lot of blood, sweat, tears, and money.

The way things are going now, I can see them following the same path as the other big Japanese publishers.

Nobody wants to see Mario, Link, and Samus leave the TV for the small screen. Fortunately they do have a creative person (Miyamoto) who has power to make decisions, and who the execs actually listen to. So maybe he’ll convince them otherwise.

Smart money though is on the NX being a new handheld, or even a kid friendly smartphone.

Image via KnowYourMeme